The ongoing memory chip crisis is putting strong pressure on the smartphone market, as TrendForce expects global shipments to decline by 10% this year, to reach only about 1.135 billion units.
However, the scenario may take a more pessimistic path; The organization refers to what it calls a “negative scenario” that may push the decline to 15%, which means shipments will fall to approximately 1.061 billion units.
Although the year 2025 was not the strongest in market performance, it ended the year with a slight growth of 2%, with total shipments ranging between 1.24 and 1.26 billion units.
Regardless of the final scenario, average selling prices for phones will inevitably rise in 2026. According to TrendForce, memory components historically represented between 10% and 15% of the phone’s manufacturing cost, but this percentage has now jumped to between 30% and 40% of the total component bill. Hence, this will lead to a reduction in production for some companies.
However, the severity of the impact will vary from one brand to another. Samsung will benefit from its strong vertical integration and role as a major memory supplier, giving it greater ability to absorb costs. Also, Apple will rely on its user base, which has historically shown greater acceptance of higher prices.
As for the majority of Chinese companies, they will face greater challenges, given their reliance on a more price-sensitive customer segment, especially brands that focus on the economic category, which makes them more vulnerable to fluctuations in component costs.
