Random memory prices have witnessed a sharp rise in recent months, which heralds clear negative impacts on the smartphone market in the coming period.
Accordingly, analytics company Counterpoint revised its forecast for 2026, backing away from the stability scenario, to expect the global market to contract by 2.1%.
Counterpoint warns that the wave of memory price increases will continue, noting that they may increase by an additional 40% until the second quarter of 2026, which will put significant pressure on manufacturing costs.
Currently, the cost of basic components for low-end phones has increased by 25% compared to the beginning of the year, while mid- and high-end phones have recorded increases of about 15% and 10%, respectively. As forecasts for the second quarter of 2026 come true, manufacturing costs may see additional increases ranging between 8% and 15%.
In terms of shipments, the company expects a general decline among most phone manufacturers. After Oppo and Vivo were expected to achieve growth in shipments, the revised forecasts indicate a decline instead, while the decline in Xiaomi and especially Honor is expected to be greater than previously expected.
As for major companies, such as Apple and Samsung, they will not be immune to the impact, but they remain in a better position compared to others. Senior analyst Yang Wang explains that the two companies have a greater ability to balance market share and profit margins, while other companies, especially Chinese ones, will face greater difficulty in dealing with increasing pressures during the coming quarters.
Under these circumstances, phone companies have already begun to adapt to higher costs by restructuring their product lineups and reducing some specifications.
Analyst Xinghao Bai pointed to the observation of reductions in components such as camera units, telephoto lenses, screens, and audio components, in addition to reducing memory options in some models.
In conclusion, analysts expect the average selling price of smartphones to rise faster in 2026 than previous estimates, as expectations were raised from an increase of 3.9% to 6.9%.
As a result, companies are likely to seek to direct users towards higher price segments, as they are less affected by rising memory prices compared to budget phones.
