Reports and investigations
Iranian researcher Hakam Amhaz
Saturday 31/January/2026 – 12:45 PM
What is happening in Iran today is not just a passing crisis or a routine diplomatic escalation. The region and the world are not… Iran They stand before a defining historical moment that may redraw the map of the Middle East for decades to come, as the regime in Iran faces the greatest existential challenge in its history, trapped between a rebellious people demanding freedom and dignity, and a superpower waving a military stick.
In this regard, Iranian researcher Hakam Amhaz, a political researcher and expert in Iranian and regional affairs, points out that no one can definitively decide whether the United States of America will launch a war against Iran or not, and that the probability of an American strike not occurring against Iran reaches about 60%, while there remains a 40% chance of a strike occurring.
In an interview with Cairo 24, he indicated that Iran will not hand over its nuclear or missile program, and China has its neck under the American knife if it neglects Iran in favor of America, and Russia also has more interests with Iran than with Washington, despite what we see of the rapprochement between Putin and Trump.
And to the text of the dialogue..
Will the United States launch an attack on Tehran? How will Iran respond?
I do not believe that there will be a strike against Iran, at least 60%. There will not be a strike. Any American strike against Iran means opening a comprehensive war that will lead to the ignition of the entire region. America itself knows that Iran has very great capabilities at the missile level, and the American fleet and the soldiers deployed in the region, numbering between 40 and 50 thousand soldiers, will be under the range of Iranian fire. Likewise, Israel will represent a primary target for Iran in the event of any aggression.
Any existential threat to Iran will mean an existential threat to its allies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Palestinian factions in Gaza and the West Bank, in addition to Syria, which despite the changes in its political system still maintains an anti-Israel doctrine, and that although a comprehensive strike is unlikely, there is a possibility of a limited or hybrid strike targeting some facilities or ballistic missiles, with an attempt to exploit internal protests in Iran.
What are the repercussions of war on the region and the world if it breaks out between the two parties?
Even if America’s strike against Iran is limited, it will have wide repercussions, and the United States may begin it without being able to end the war. Closing the sea straits in the event of the outbreak of war will lead to a global economic crisis, which will severely affect the United States, which suffers from inflation and rising prices, which is reflected in Trump’s popularity internally.
The American-Iranian conflict is also linked to a broader conflict between the United States and China, and American control over Iranian, Arab, and Venezuelan oil will mean controlling the Chinese oil artery, which is a fundamental weak point for Beijing. In addition, we see that China will not intervene directly militarily, but will provide advanced technological support to Iran, as demonstrated by the superiority of Chinese weapons that Pakistan used against India recently. Any aggression will be reflected regionally and internationally, and will not be limited to Iran, America, and Israel, but will extend to China and the countries of the region, and the real decision maker in The United States, not just Trump, but the deep state, will take these facts into consideration.
Why won’t there be an all-out war?
Any comprehensive war between the two parties means the ignition of the entire region. Of course, any American strike on Iran means opening the door to war wide open, and this means that the entire region will be ignited. Iran possesses very large missile capabilities that make any aggression against it an adventure fraught with uncalculated risks, and the American fleet has become directly under the range of Iranian missiles.
If a war occurs and there is an existential threat to Iran, this means that there is an existential threat to all parties that are Iran’s allies in the region or the so-called resistance front. These parties, even if they have been subjected to certain strikes and weakness, of course still have very great capabilities, especially Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Palestinian factions in Gaza represented by Hamas and others in the West Bank.
Let it be certain that Iran will not back down from its red lines that it has set. However, Iran said that it could dispel the concerns of the West regarding the issue of its nuclear program, capabilities, etc., and this may be the gateway to a diplomatic solution.
Do you see that Iran is pursuing a long-term policy to exhaust Israel and America? Or do you not have sufficient options to confront them except with missiles?
In my estimation, Iran believes that the war this time will be long, similar to Gaza, and therefore not as it was in the battle that took place last June alone. It believes that its stockpile of weapons must continue for a long period in the confrontation, and we all know that the weak point of the Israeli entity is known, which is the war of attrition. Currently, the Iranian view, as far as I know, has changed at the military tactical level, as Iran has enormous military capabilities at the missile level capable of bypassing American, Israeli, and Western air defense systems, and this is what happened in the 12-year war. One day.
There are missiles that Iran has not used yet, and this means that there are capabilities that Iran has that have not yet been revealed, and Iran has a strong point to hide those capabilities, which is that its geography is wide, reaching about one million seven hundred thousand kilometers, and this plays a very big role in the battle. Can the United States of America and Israel target all of this vast area in a certain period of time? Of course, this is not possible, and if war breaks out, the response will be strong and decisive, especially since after the 12-day war it benefited from the lessons and repositioned itself. Its military sites and missile capabilities, in preparation for the upcoming confrontation.
What are the red lines for Iran in the negotiations?
There are certain red points for Iran, which are preserving its national rights, which are determined by international laws and conventions, that there be a percentage of enrichment on its territory, and that there be a certain percentage of enrichment to operate reactors, factories, and manufacture radiopharmaceuticals, etc.
Regarding missile capabilities and its alliances in the region, Tehran believes that this is an Iranian matter that no one can interfere in. Iran can also dispel the concerns of the United States of America and the West regarding the issue of enrichment and others, and this is possible in certain ways that can be discussed in various fields.
The West is counting on the opposition to disrupt the regime from within. How do you see that?
The Iranian opposition is disunited, and this is something that the harsh and the wise know. The opposition is disunited abroad and cannot unite on a position. There is no personality capable of being a leader and leader of these protests inside Iran. What he did, even Reza Pahlavi, the son of the former Shah, does not represent anything. Pahlavi is not pleased with him by the opposition parties and is not popular inside Iran. He is known to pursue his personal interests and is known to have more women’s relationships than political relationships. Trump said of him that he is not capable of The crowd inside and destroyed him before others destroyed him, and did to him what he did to the opposition leader in Venezuela, Maria Machado, when Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was kidnapped.
How do you see the regional interaction, especially the Arab ones, with the ongoing tensions between Iran and America?
Arab and regionally, if we talk about the Egyptian role in calming the situation, it is an important role carried out by Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Ati, as he plays an important role as he conducts continuous and intensive contacts with the Iranian Foreign Minister and also with the American officials concerned with this issue. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and Qatar are also conducting mediation efforts in coordination with the Sultanate of Oman and even Iraq, so that the crisis does not reach a military clash. The Arab countries realize that any event that occurs in the region will have very negative effects and repercussions on the region as a whole. The economies of the region as a whole, because perhaps if the war breaks out, it may not stop and may burn everything in the region.
Could Iran hand over its nuclear or missile program?
If Trump is thinking about this issue, he is dreaming. Iran cannot surrender its nuclear program, nor can it abandon its missile program completely, and it sees this as a red line that cannot be touched in any way.
Could we see a Russian-Chinese alliance with Iran if a war breaks out?
China now believes that if any threat occurs to Iran, its neck will be under the American knife. A direct military war between China and America is unlikely because they are both great powers and a war between them would be devastating to both of them and to the world. Therefore, no one on either side is thinking of a war against the other. However, the Chinese weak point in Iran vis-à-vis America lies in oil. If Trump controls Iran, he controls the oil, and this means that he has put a knife on the Chinese neck. Therefore, this means that China has become besieged and America is the one who controls the Chinese economy. If the United States wants Choking China will cut off this oil artery. This means that if war breaks out, China will have two options: either to enter the war, which is unlikely, or to accept the fall of Iran, which means eliminating it gradually. I believe that China will find itself forced, in accordance with its interests, to provide full support to Iran.
As for Russia, of course, when we talk about alliances, we see that the danger posed by allies will befall others. Putin is one of the smartest figures among world leaders, and therefore he views his relations with Trump on the level of benefit as a tactical temporary period, but on a strategic level, Trump will not stay, so Russian interests will be calculated in a different way. The interests of countries are not based on personal relationships. Personal relationships may affect tactics, as we indicated, but on a strategic level, they differ from this standpoint. I believe that the Russian interest is not with the United States, but with Its Chinese ally and its Iranian ally.
There are also agreements signed between the Iranian side on the one hand and the Chinese and Russian parties on the other hand, meaning an agreement between Iran and China and between Iran and Russia, each for a period of between 20 and 25 years. This agreement also includes topics related to the subject of military defense and the exchange of military and security information, among others, of course, with the exception of the joint defense process.
Is Iran ready for war?
Iran has been working, planning and preparing for days like this since the beginning of the Islamic Revolution because it is fully aware that the American is not on the safe side. If we look at what Iran has been exposed to, I do not believe that any country on earth subjected to the sanctions to which Tehran has been subjected and to the wars to which Iran has been subjected at various levels, whether economic, military, security, media or psychological, can withstand such steadfastness in the face of the United States and its hostility.
Iran is now considered among the countries of the world in terms of technological progress, scientific progress, and other very significant levels. We see Tehran manufacturing nuclear weapons and launching satellites, and militarily it is known for its missile capabilities. It is fighting with its own capabilities and the expertise of its people who created these capabilities, and thus it achieved this great victory. Although the first strike was painful, it is still ready and capable of war in the face of America and Israel.
