Counterpoint Research analysts predicted radical changes in their latest forecast, confirming that the balance of power in the smartphone market will completely shift by 2025.
Samsung must prepare, as it is expected to overtake South Korea’s Apple not only for a short period, but to remain on top. Statisticians expect the global market to grow by 3.3% next year.
While the market as a whole is seeing moderate growth, Apple is expected to achieve a significant increase in sales of up to 10%. As for Samsung, it is expected to achieve limited growth of only 4.6%, which will not be enough to maintain the title of global leader.
If analysts’ expectations are correct, Apple will once again become the largest smartphone manufacturer in the world for the first time since 2011, bringing its market share to 19.4%. Expectations indicate that Apple may remain without a competitor at the top until 2029, which indicates the beginning of a new era in the industry.
This shift is due to several clear reasons. First, the iPhone 17 Series achieves record sales not only in its main market, the United States, but also in China, where it has recorded double-digit annual growth rates, which is special, especially in light of the recent difficulty of the Chinese market for Western companies.
Secondly, the market is witnessing what is known as a “super cycle”, as many people bought new phones during the closure period due to Corona, and now those phones are old, their batteries are exhausted, and their screens are scratched, which prompts users to buy new phones.
In addition, the used phone market is very active, with 358 million used iPhones in circulation between 2023 and mid-2025, and users of these phones often buy a new model later.
Apple is also expected to launch the first foldable iPhone in 2026, to be a direct challenge to Samsung in its traditional market. Meanwhile, Apple is targeting a new segment of customers with the launch of the iPhone 17e, the most economical model (an alternative to the Slim or SE), with a complete redesign planned for 2027.
On the other hand, Chinese companies are facing difficulties, as their local market suffers from weakness and supply chains are tense, and the prices of components are expected to rise as of 2026. Here lies the advantage of Apple and Samsung, as they have huge financial resources that enable them to purchase components easily and maintain their competitive advantage.
